ON just two occasions have recent elections in Iran reflected the people’s will and yielded particularly surprising and disorienting outcomes for the ruling establishment, first in 1997 with the election of Mohammad Khatami, and again, three years ago. In June 2009, the democratic opposition, led by the reformist Mir Hussein Moussavi — a former prime minister with a reputation for honesty, integrity and clean politics — polled strongly, only to have the election stolen from it through fraud. Popular protests were met with widespread arrests, street assaults and assassinations, and a show of force by police commandos, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, militia members and countless paid plainclothes vigilantes. Soviet-style show trials and TV confessions followed. Since early 2010, except on one occasion, the ruling authoritarian clique has used sheer force, intimidation and fear to prevent public protests by the supporters of the opposition. Mr. Moussavi and a fellow opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi, have been illegally under house arrest since February 2011.