National: Which Republicans are most likely to think the election was stolen? Those who dislike Democrats and don’t mind white nationalists. | Jan Zilinsky, Jonathan Nagler and Joshua Tucker/The Washington Post
After an election loss, the defeated party usually looks for narratives to make sense of what happened. Unusually for the United States, in this election, the losing candidate decided to claim, falsely, that he wasn’t truly defeated at all. Existing research shows that partisans often adopt their leaders’ views. We recently fielded a study finding that indeed this was the case, although the magnitude of this effect is still startling: Over 70 percent of Republicans said they agreed with President Trump’s contention that he received more votes than Joe Biden. Nor was this belief limited to those with lower levels of education: A majority of Republicans with college degrees in our sample said they believed that the election results were fraudulent. But the Republicans most likely to make false claims about electoral fraud were those who were the most disdainful of Democrats and who sympathize with white nationalists. From Dec. 16-29, we polled more than 2,600 registered voters (including 962 Republicans and Republican leaners), asking whether they were confident that their votes were counted fairly and accurately. The survey was administered by YouGov, and we weighted all our calculations to make them nationally representative. We asked voters whether they thought that “millions of fraudulent mail and absentee ballots were cast” and whether “voting machines were manipulated to add tens of thousands of votes for Joe Biden.” Finally, we asked for respondents’ reactions to the statement that “thousands of votes were recorded for dead people.” For each of these false statements, more than 50 percent of Republican respondents said it was “very accurate”; over 75 percent of Republican voters said each one was “very accurate” or “somewhat accurate.” Only about 3 percent of Democrats assessed these conspiratorial statements as “very accurate.”