The October 7 presidential election in Venezuela, which pits longtime president Hugo Chávez against former governor Henrique Capriles Radonski, presents Chávez’s most formidable electoral challenge to date. Although the three-term president retains popular support, Capriles has led a strong opposition campaign that has gained considerable momentum in the weeks leading up to the election. A defeat for the president could signal a significant shift in the country’s “socialist revolution,” its economy, and foreign relations. In the event of a reelection for Chávez, concerns linger over the conditions of his health and the trajectory of Venezuela’s future should he die in office. The October 7 vote has significant implications for the direction of Venezuela’s “socialist revolution,” as well as the country’s democratic landscape. Michael Penfold writes in a January 2012 Foreign Affairs article that “a Chávez defeat would signal the end of a leftist revolution that has radically transformed Venezuela and, some argue, Latin America in the twenty-first century,” while a Chávez victory would “inflict a fatal blow to a renewed opposition that has struggled, and now seems to be succeeding, to gain some traction in a socially polarized country.”
A victory for Capriles could also be significant for the trajectory of the Venezuelan economy. Although the country’s economic growth and unemployment levels are stable, a 2012 report by Barclays Capital found that Venezuela under Chávez was on an “unsustainable fiscal path” (PDF). The report’s authors, Alejandro Grisanti and Alejandro Arreaza, write that a sharp adjustment in Venezuela’s economy will lie ahead if Chávez wins the election, adding that “this adjustment will be very painful, given the lack of support from the Venezuelan private sector and international capital markets.” They say that Capriles and the opposition coalition “have already recognized the unsustainability of the current economic policy framework and stated their willingness to make gradual changes,” which could lead to a “radical change in the economic conditions of the country that would be highly favorable for Venezuela.”
A Capriles win would also likely spur a shift in Venezuela’s foreign relations. U.S.-Venezuelan relations are economically strong but diplomatically fraught under Chávez, who has openly condemned the United States’ global influence and foreign policy. If Capriles wins the presidency, it could “put Venezuela on a more democratic course” (PDF) and allow the country to revise these relationships, writes Stephen Johnson for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. However, Luis Hernandez Navarro, opinion editor of Mexican newspaper La Jornada, writes in a Guardian op-ed that Venezuela “has forged alliances with Russia, Iran and China, and has gained a good reputation and influence among many non-aligned countries. All of this would be at risk if Chávismo were defeated at the polls.”
Full Article: Venezuela’s High-Stakes Election – Council on Foreign Relations.