It’s been a busy summer for Russian hackers. After a series of high-profile data breaches and threats, questions are being raised about the vulnerability of November’s US presidential election to cyber-interference and subversion. July saw the leak of Democratic National Convention emails, which embarrassed the Clinton campaign by revealing accusations of the party’s dirty tricks against Democrat rival Bernie Sanders. There was the infiltration of electoral registries in Arizona and Illinois, highlighting the insecurity of electronic voting systems. Both, arguably, boosted Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Investigations into these breaches implicate Russia’s domestic and military intelligence agencies, the FSB and GRU, a charge Russia denies. But these claims have been unusually specific and backed with corroborating evidence. If true, they suggest Russia is unleashing new tools and tactics to pursue its objectives. Could it affect the outcome of the US election? And how should we understand the apparent escalation in Russian state-sponsored hacking?
A report this week by the US Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology details myriad ways in which hackers could infiltrate electronic voting systems, potentially influencing electoral outcomes. The Arizona and Illinois hacks show this is more than a hypothetical risk. However, it is unlikely that large-scale digital tampering required to swing a vote would go unnoticed, despite the antiquated systems involved.
Hackers are more likely to try to erode trust in the outcome by introducing unreliability and uncertainty into vote-counting. In the event of a close result, it might also make seeking a Supreme Court ruling seem more legitimate. Again, this would presumably benefit Trump. Many of his supporters mistrust government infrastructure already. He is also the candidate most likely to make political capital out of such travails.
Aside from the technical attribution of recent hacks to Russian intelligence, these events also align with Russian foreign policy. Its “New-Generation” warfare, focused on subversion and interference, aims to achieve political outcomes that fit Russian interests, as seen in Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine and elsewhere.
Full Article: Russian hacker threat to hit US election must be taken seriously | New Scientist.