California recently passed the New Motor Voter Act, a law designed to register eligible residents to vote by default when they use the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), unless they decline. Other states have or are considering similar laws. But because of California’s diversity and size — the 2016 population was 39.2 million and climbing — the Golden State’s law garnered special interest when it passed last fall. In a new report, we look at the law’s likely effect on the demographics of California’s electorate, and at the number of new potential voters it might register in its first year. We find that supporters are right to see great promise in the law, but how the law is implemented will be far more important than many have suggested. The new law could dramatically change California’s electorate. Emphasis on “could.”
First, some background. California’s New Motor Voter program isn’t universal. It applies only to those who use the DMV to get a new driver’s license or ID card, or renew or change an address on an existing driver’s license or ID card. And it applies only to customers who use the DMV after the law goes into effect — currently slated for July 2017.
But it’s pretty close to universal. Almost every California resident who is eligible to vote eventually gets either a driver’s license or an ID card. And many, many Californians use the DMV for one of those tasks each year. Between July 2014 and July 2015, that included about 10 million people, including roughly 2.6 million unregistered but eligible potential voters. If most unregistered Californians eventually end up on the rolls, it would significantly change the electorate’s demographics.
To gauge how much, we used the current enrollment rates from a similar program in Oregon — where roughly 93 percent of eligible DMV customers have been registered since the beginning of this year — and registration estimates from the Current Population Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s very optimistic. California’s uptake rate is unlikely to be as high as Oregon’s for reasons we will get into below. But it’s useful for setting high-end expectations.
Full Article: This new California law could dramatically change the demographics of its electorate – The Washington Post.