Editorials: German Election Could Still Surprise | Wall Street Journal

Don’t consider German elections a done deal just yet. Judging from past experience, there is still room for a shock as polls in Germany have often underestimated the end-results of small parties. “There is big surprise potential,” says BHF Bank in a note to clients, because the anti-euro party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, gets little attention from outside Germany. In a poll conducted by Forsa institute and published Wednesday, 3% of participants said they would vote for the AfD in September 22 elections. The result is well below the 5% threshold needed for parties to enter parliament in Germany. AfD’s results in previous surveys have been similar. However, at election betting platform Prognosys, the AfD is mustering a healthy 6%, BHF points out. Prognosys lets betters place odds on the outcome of the vote.
“Maybe not all poll participants dare disclose their support for AfD,” the bank says as a possible explanation for the divergence. That’s because some supporters of the AfD, whose main demand is that Germany exit the euro zone, are aware of the party’s negative reputation among some Germans.
Evidence that polls can underestimate smaller parties is easily found in past elections.
The Liberal Democrats –currently the junior partner in Germany’s national coalition with the Christian Democrats — garnered about twice as much support in recent state elections than in preceding polls. The same has occurred in the case of extreme-right parties over the years.
Full Article: German Election Could Still Surprise – Dispatch – WSJ.