The bans against six candidates for advocating Hong Kong independence have added a new dimension to the coming September 4 Legislative Council election. Suddenly, everyone is talking about the prospect, whereas before it was just another of those far-out ideas that local conservatives think college students dream up to waste time and make trouble for the authorities. But for all the anxiety over a possible post-Occupy pro-independence radical surge on September 4, preliminary polling suggests there may be only minimal change in the Legislative Council’s balance of political forces once the dust settles. For one thing, the council’s design makes anything else almost impossible. The 70-seat body is so thoroughly spliced and diced that it would take a true tsunami-like wave election to make much difference in its political composition.
Beijing’s objective … when the design was being created and written into Hong Kong’s post-1997 Basic Law constitution … was to prevent dissident disloyal parties from being able to dominate and if nothing else that aim has been achieved. But the design also means that it doesn’t have to be a wave election to make a difference.
Even a few seats more or less will be enough to register an impact. For this election, it means five seats to be exact. That’s the number pro-establishment forces need to create a critical two-thirds super-majority.
Full Article: The complex design of Hong Kong’s legislative elections ensure that nothing will change | Hong Kong Free Press.