If Marine Le Pen is elected in France’s presidential elections next year, would she organize a “Frexit”? The leader of the far-right National Front party has used the term before, and she has made it abundantly clear that she thinks the European Union has been a “complete disaster,” as she put it in a speech in Vienna last week. The European Union is one of the most frequent targets of her scorn, depicted as a faceless bureaucracy bent on erasing the French nation in all of its individuality. “France has perhaps a thousand more reasons to leave the E.U. than the English,” she was quoted as saying during a gathering in the Austrian capital of representatives of far-right parties.
There are two big obstacles to a French exit. First, although Ms. Le Pen is considered likely to do well in the first round of presidential voting in the spring, no analysts think she will win the second round.
And second, it is far from clear that a majority of the French have given up on the European Union the way Ms. Le Pen has.